On announcement day, every activist looks smart. One year later, they do not.
Every published campaign of the leading activist funds, reconstructed and priced against each company’s own market. Every campaign jumps on day one, whatever its quality. Twelve months later the top quartile stands +34%; the bottom quartile, −38%. A 72-point spread, invisible at the start. Method separated them, not aggression.
Precise, verifiable evidence of where value is trapped — a per-share number that survives diligence.
Management’s own record: promised versus delivered, dated and quoted. The one exhibit no board rebuts.
Asks a board can actually implement — and the market pays again, each time one is executed.
Assertion in place of proof — campaigns that only claim trailed their market by 22 points a year on.
Aggression as a substitute for a case: attacks, ultimatums, the proxy fight itself — zero premium.
The board-seat contest as the goal. The market pays for the action, never for the fight.
BoardBrain is trained on the reasoning of the campaigns that created value, not on activism in general. Rebuilt blind from only the facts available the day before each campaign became public, the engine reproduced the diagnosis, the lever and the ask of 82% of the value-creating campaigns, invented nothing, and declined every company that was never a target.
Leading activist investors, 2002–2026, market-adjusted. Portfolio-level results, not predictions for any security. Full methodology available under NDA.